Everyone around the world right now is trying to figure out if there’s a Best Picture Frontrunner at this point in the game, and to be quite honest with you, I thought we had one, right up until the point where Gravity swept the DGA’s (Directors Guild of America) Awards ceremony.

Now, we all knew Alfonso Cuaron was a shoo-in for Best Director at the Oscars this year, which if you’ve seen Gravity needs no explanation (for those who do more, I‘ll just say this; the first 15 minutes or so are enough to make this cinema geek drool). However, it’s been winning everything left and right, making many wonder if it has a chance to beat 12 Years A Slave and American Hustle.

Me? I’m not so sure yet, even I though I personally consider Gravity to be vastly better than 12 Years A Slave. However, this current situation does seem like a good time to implement my new way to organize the official nominees; by the likelihood of their winning. A movie at No. 1 has the most chance of victory, while a film with the lowest number has the least likely chance of winning. Even over the next four weeks, it’ll be interesting to see how the race changes and who could still come out on top in this crazy, crazy Oscar Run.

Best Picture:

1. 12 Years A Slave

2. American Hustle

3. Gravity

4. The Wolf of Wall Street

5. Dallas Buyers Club

6. Nebraska

7. Her

8. Captain Phillips

9. Philomena

Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

2. Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)

3. David O. Russell (American Hustle)

4. Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)

5. Alexander Payne (Nebraska)

Best Actor:

Christian Bale (American Hustle)

Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)

Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

2. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

3. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

4. Amy Adams (American Hustle)

5. Judi Dench (Philomena)

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

2. Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)

3. Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)

4. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

5. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

2. Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave)

3. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

4. June Squibb (Nebraska)

5. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)