Low gas prices about more than the cost of oil
December 11, 2014
Within the past several months, the world has watched the price of oil fall steadily to its lowest point in five years. Many reasons are behind this, including shale oil production in the United States. However, the price of oil reflects a lot of different things.
When people in the Western world think of oil, it is usually associated with energy or gas prices and how changes will affect their daily lives. But the price of oil does not just have effects on the consumer, for someone has to sell the oil as well. These producers often depend on oil as a major export, and when oil prices take a hit, so do their economies- economies like Russia’s.
In the wake of continued Western sanctions over Ukraine and the falling of the export value of their oil, their currency and economy have already taken hits. Russian President Vladimir Putin has already warned his people of hard times to come and has outlined measures to try to contain the damage. Yet, despite all of these problems, Ukraine is still an issue.
Technically, the conflict in Ukraine is under ceasefire. However, there is still fighting and death along the lines as forces on both sides of the conflict continue to square off in the rebel areas. The West attempts to use its sanctions and the hits on Russia’s economy to solve the problem. But this idea has its own issues.
First of all Russia’s economy is actually very important in any Ukrainian solution. Both Russia and the Western nations want Ukraine in their respective power blocks, but the fighting destabilizes any chance Ukraine has to keep itself afloat long enough to fix its economy. Since the end of the Cold War, what was effectively Russian subsidiaries in gas have been what kept Ukraine aloft financially. This kind of balance in economic position in Ukraine is a key factor in the nation’s hope for stability, yet the West may not be willing to do something similar to let Ukraine heal.
Second is the political side of it. The Ukraine is still a confrontational ground between what the West sees as Russian imperialism and what Russia sees as the West trying to prevent Russia from a return to power. Russia entered the Ukraine knowing that it would likely pay an economic price, and the sanctions and oil export difficulties still do not change the fact that this is Russia’s stand. The economics also do not change the fact that both sides know that the West will not actually defend Ukraine if it were to be invaded. Sanctions alone will not bring Russia out of Ukraine.
To address the issues that the West has with Russia, a long-term solution is needed that makes all parties, including Ukraine itself, feel that they are being respected. And though both oil and Ukraine play factors in current Russian-United States policy, there is still much at stake for the long-term political relations amongst these nations.
So the next time you fill up with cheap gas, remember the price of oil is often counted in more than dollars and cents.